Shall We Eat Out Tonight or Eat Out-In?

Grand displays during St Valentines inside every Marks & Spencer stores.

Grand displays during St Valentines inside every Marks & Spencer stores.

About 830,000 people bought the Marks & Spencer “Valentine’s Day £20 ($30) Meal Deal for Two” which was comprised of  coquilles St. Jacques, Beef Wellington, a side of vegetables, profiteroles for dessert, a box of fancy chocolates and a bottle of Cava.

M&S has long seen restaurants and take aways as direct competitors for market share of your stomach. Thirty years ago, M&S was the first to put packaged sandwiches in its stores.

Now, M&S, Tesco the UK’s largest supermarket chain and Boots, the pharmacist, vie with Subway to be the leading vendors of lunch, offering a panoply of traditional triangular sarnies, subs, hoagies, wraps, etc.

You have to study up to order a sandwich without social embarrassment: “Will that be on rye/sourdough/gluten-free, plain/toasted with mayo/butter, Dijon/English mustard, radish/alfalfa sprouts …?”. For goodness sake, I only want a cheese sandwich! “Will that be Cheddar/Old Amsterdam/Munster …”

Buying food and making meals used to be a simple affair. Grocery stores sold ingredients. We’d take them home, make a particular dish and, then, sit down as a family to eat and chat about the day.

But the time available for in-home meal preparation has been squeezed from two hours in the 1950s to 20 minutes in 2015. Now, we are more likely to buy “meal components,” bagged stir fry veggies, chicken strips and, then, assemble them into a meal. Or buy a ready meal, a pizza or microwaveable lasagna.

The decision “what’s for dinner?” may well be taken mid-afternoon, and there follows febrile phone negotiations on who is closest to a store/has more time and inclination to tussle with other peevish grocery shoppers in that frenetic 4-6 pm “food gathering for the family” period.

Trends in household structure are influential in how and where we eat: 65 per cent of UK households comprise one or two persons and they are much more likely to eat out or order in than the nuclear family. We top the European ready meal league: 30 per cent of adult Britons eat a “ready to heat” meal more than once a week, four times that of Italy (microwaves are in every UK kitchen, whereas they are relatively rare in Italy).

In Holland and the UK,  “Metro” stores are close to train stations so that commuters can grab a meal (not a basket of ingredients) to take home. In an increasingly competitive grocery retail environment, supermarkets see the provision of meals rather than ingredients as a clear opportunity for growth. Whole Foods Market is a good example—is it a supermarket or a comfortable place to snack, graze, have lunch or pick up dinner? In Japan, 7-11 is a convenient meal and snack chain, changing its products through the day to cater for customers’ breakfast, lunch and dinner needs.

Tesco convenience store - you can buy breakfast, lunch, dinner, and Go!

Tesco convenience store – you can buy breakfast, lunch, dinner, and Go!

In 1970, 20 per cent of US food expenditure was spent on meals/snacks outside the home.  By 2014 it was 48 per cent. The trend has been similar in Northern Europe. But, could this be its peak as supermarket food shopping and eating out converge?

Restaurants are fighting back:

  • increasingly, on-line ordering “food-to-go” is offered by posh and family restaurant chains, not just pizza and other fast food outlets;
  • in the US, grubHub and the UK roomservice connect would-be diners with their local restaurants. You order on line and can elect to have the meal delivered or go and pick it up;
  • the likes of Google Express, Amazon Prime, Instacart deliver restaurant meals. Surely, Uber will be in this business, too? Drone/driverless car delivery is here or very close and this will reduce costs and raise service levels for meal and grocery deliveries.

The increasing competition between food retailers and restaurants is good news for consumers. Businesses that offer better quality, service, convenience, variety and keener prices will, as ever, survive and prosper.

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in Convenience

Value to Shout About: The Aldi and Lidl Way

Back in the late-1990’s, dismal days for Sainsbury’s, the supermarket chain launched a high profile advertising campaign using John Cleese eccentrically stalking the aisles shouting about the great value of Sainsbury’s products. Buoyant, bumptious Tesco  were beating them up on price. The campaign was a monumental failure – embarrassing staff and not convincing even annoying shoppers. Seventeen years on, it’s Tesco who has been taking the beating – a salutary reminder of how the great wheel of retailing continues to turn! – and the current assertive retailers, Aldi and Lidl, are those that were dismissed by the “Big Boys” in 1998 as minor competitive irritants.

Aldi and Lidl continuously highlighting their credentials of price and quality. The motto of the Swap & Save campagin was “The only difference you will notice is the price”

In retrospect, we should have seen the hard discount wave approaching, after all, across The English Channel, there was plenty of evidence of their burgeoning success. So what have been the principal success factors for Aldi and Lidl in the UK?:

  • a disarmingly simple retail model focusing on every day low prices – no hocus pocus promotional gizmos, with high-low pricing mechanics;
  • good quality private label with European credentials (outperforming UK supermarket private label products in national awards);
  • adequate but not overwhelming choice of skus;
  • store locations, range of merchandise (e.g. premium tier private label), as well as economic recession has helped middle class acceptance of hard discounter retailers;
  • seemingly random but surprisingly attractive “treasure trove” items available on a “WIGIG” basis (i.e. when it’s gone it’s gone!);
  • international retail strength of both Aldi and Lidl gives them substantial buying power;
  • rigorous but fair treatment of suppliers and mutually satisfactory longer-term commercial relationships;
  • simplicity of commercial terms when dealing with suppliers;
  • a willingness to adapt the Germanic hard discount model to the requirements of the UK market – e.g. an expanding fresh food offer;
  • private ownership has enabled Aldi and Lidl to develop and stick to long-term strategies without the carping demands of City analysts;
  • conservative but relentless opening of new stores;
  • clever PR communications that moved shopper perceptions of the hard discounters from being marginal retailers through to mainstream grocery players – e.g. Aldi becoming the first supermarket chain to sponsor the UK Olympic team for Brazil in 2016;
  • and shouting loud and long about their price and value advantages.

In 2014, Aldi and Lidl together spent £103 million on advertising. With a combined grocery market share of around 7.5% in 2014, these 2 hard discounters accounted for 25% of total grocery chain advertising spend. Unlike Sainsbury’s in 1998, Aldi and Lidl have had something to shout about and the shopping public has lent a willing ear! It’s been clever advertising, too: e.g. Aldi and Lidl poking fun at Morrison’s

Aldi Frosty Morning B1xKQxlCUAAiv-M

Aldi joking about Morrisons when the British retailer claimed to be cheaper than Aldi and Lidl.

lidl-sun-advert

Simplicity is one of the values of Discounters.

The wheel of retailing will continue to turn and the ungainly supermarket Big Boys will claw their way back towards more commercial respectability (or, at least, some of them will!). But not before Aldi and Lidl snatch a few more market share points from slow-footed grocers. Make no mistake, the hard discounters are up and running as bona fide mainstream grocers – much more than top up shopping destinations.

Tagged with: ,
Posted in Credentials, Discount

What Do Shoppers Want in Their Food?

Sitting in a café sipping a decaffeinated almond milk latte and reading the weekend edition of The Times, it’s easy to think that Europeans have crossed The Rubicon when it comes to food eating. Food journalists are lyrical on the need for our food to be sustainable, green, local, and ethical. But does our ethical food purchasing behaviour stack up in the grocery aisles?

In the UK, consumer expenditure on ethical food and drink products increased by 10 times between 1999 and 2014 and, now, comprises around 8% of total food and drink purchases – ethical here is a tad controversial as it bundles organic, Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, vegetarian meat alternatives, animal welfare-friendly, etc. all together to come up with a “green” bundle. It doesn’t mean that conventional food is identifiably non-ethical but indicates that consumers, from pretty much a standing start 15 years ago, are increasingly asking for much more to be included in the food they buy than they did in the past.

Wholefoods Markets, quintessentially green.

Whole Foods Market, quintessentially green.

The top five North American culinary restaurant themes for 2015 are distinctly green in hue emphasizing:

  • environmental sustainability – e.g. Chipotle with its claim of “food integrity”, and supporting local farms;
  • natural ingredients – e.g. Carl’s Jnr. with the “All-Natural Burger: no antibiotics, no steroids, free range”;
  • hyper-local sourcing from urban hydroponic farms and from the local shore and ponds;
  • minimum food waste – good for the environment, restaurant profit, and reducing customers’ guilt. This includes root-to-stem/nose-to-tail cooking and eating (you know scoffing all of the hog including the squeal!);
  • and gluten-free cuisine – 7% of North Americans are sensitive to gluten but a massive 63% believe that gluten-free diets are better for their physical and mental health.

An USA National Restaurant Association survey of restaurant protein trends links to these overall themes with the Top 5 being:

  • locally-sourced meat and seafood;
  • new, lower cost cuts of meat – e.g. shoulder/butt of pork for pulled pork dishes; flat iron steak from beef chuck;
  • sustainable seafood – with 3rd Party endorsement, such as Marine Stewardship Council;
  • “non-traditional” fish and seafood – to “save” over-fished species such as cod, Pollock is presented as a “greener” alternative; or farmed fish being given a benign make-over instead of dwindling stocks of wild-caught;
  • grass-fed beef – e.g. A&W’s grass-fed burger!

These green shoots are discernible across the globe. Australians are increasingly looking for local in the food products they buy and see the foods they eat being connected more closely to their local communities – 55% of Aussies think that buying locally sourced food is very important to them, up 10% from 4 years ago, and 85% of them much prefer fresh food to be sourced locally or, at least, nationally. There is a clear message to retailers, here: shopper loyalty will be higher for stores that support local farmers and businesses, support the local economy and minimize environmental impacts.

So, green is the way to go. But, hold steady a moment. Recent UK consumer surveys on food purchasing shows that price and the attractiveness of promotions are far and away the two most important factors influencing purchase behavior, followed by quality and taste, and healthiness. Ethical/eco-friendly is only in 10th place! Consumers’ ethical aspirations are modified by raw economic necessity (sales of organic food slumped in the UK during the recent recession). Don’t forget, too, that some foods are essentially addictive and I doubt that consumers are struggling with ethical dilemmas when they buy a Mars Bar, Snickers, or Magnum icecream!

Bottom line: consumers are and will increasingly ask more of those who produce and retail their food. Whether it be local, animal welfare-friendly, environmentally sustainable, chemical-free or whatever, the green bar is rising inexorably. Consumer citizens will have their way and they won’t pay a premium for more ethical food, they’ll simply discount those that fail to meet their ever-rising expectations about the food they feed their families.

New McDonald's

New McDonald’s “artisan” chicken in USA

Posted in Consumer, Credentials

Tesco Bringing Theatre & Food Service to Big Box Retailing?

Should we shoot Tesco and put it out of its misery? We don’t think so – it’s far from being a basket case and is doing everything it can to revive and thrive and be the leading light in UK and international grocery retailing.

Three years ago, Tesco bought the trendy coffee chain Harris + Hoole and Giraffe the family restaurant business in an attempt to “sex up” the big box shopping experience and with mixed success (closing some of the coffee shops recently). Look, dragging the family around a Tesco Extra isn’t an uplifting experience, so, maybe the attempts to add some excitement to big box shopping is akin to putting lipstick on a pig (it’s still a pig/big box!).

More recently, Tesco have provided space for food service concessions in Tesco Extras like the NY style deli-diner Fred’s Food Construction and Decks family restaurants. In late-March, Tesco is trialing an “In Farm We Trust” food-to-go concession in its Goodge Street Metro store, London. The food is British, with provenance and offers gastro-pub grub at very affordable prices (e.g. fish pie on a Friday, slow-cooked beef cheek stew on Tuesday). Farmers, fishermen, bakers and butchers are the heroes! The menu and ingredients are very much “on-trend” – simple, classic, natural but served at speed to satisfy the “want it now” requirements of the customers. Two “Burrito-Kitchen” concessions are opening in April in Tesco stores, too.

IMG_0257

Professor David Hughes and Dom Kamara, one of the entrepreneurs behind the FARM concept.

IMG_0256

FARM, a foodservice outlet inside the Goodge Street Tesco Metro.

Does an in-store food service offer complement and build traffic for the retail store overall? Maybe for a Tesco Extra but probably not for the grab & go Metro stores. However, the Metro stores have a different function: located downtown next to offices, customers may visit 2 or 3 times a day – popping in for breakfast stuff in the morning, picking up lunch mid-day and grabbing dinner requirements in the evening. Clearly, the Metro stores are hybrid food retail and food service. In the Goodge Street store at lunchtime, there were 100+ customers being whisked through the checkouts with most holding food and drink that would be consumed within minutes of purchase.

The Tesco turnaround won’t be overnight. But, the big ship isn’t doomed and all hands are to the pumps! In a hyper-competitive grocery retail market, Tesco are happy to take “share of stomach” from food service operators to compensate in part for the lost retail sales to the hard discounters. Clearly, food retail and food service is converging as consumers forsake the traditional 3 meals per day pattern and opt for a succession of mini-meals/snacks.  It was always a Tesco mantra to follow the customer and her money!

Tagged with:
Posted in Convenience, Credentials, Foodservice

In the UK, Inflation Rate Hits Zero Percent: Cause for Celebration or Despair?

This month in the UK, the inflation rate dropped to 0%, a level not seen for 50 years and, what’s more, we could see negative figures (deflation) in the upcoming months. The principal drivers are declines in both fuel and grocery prices: in February, every major grocery category experienced month on month value falls (see chart) – a month in which, historically, price increases are expected particularly for fresh produce. Surely, this is good news for consumers but has dire consequences for the major supermarket retailers who are caught by a double whammy blow – lower prices on lower volumes of groceries with excruciating negative impact on their net margins; and continuing relentless erosion of their market shares by the hard discounters with Aldi and Lidl currently holding about 8% national grocery market share but forecasted to grow to 15% over the next very few years.

By European standards, the British economy is in good shape: unemployment falling to about 6% (in Spain it’s 23%!); and real household incomes are increasing as we claw our way out of austerity Britain. Will shoppers splash out and increase their weekly grocery shopping? Probably not and for two reasons: first, after a 7 year hard slog, they’ll be looking to buy that overdue new furniture or appliance or, maybe, reward the family with a sun-drenched holiday; and, secondly, grocery retailers are bribing their customers to stick with them/switch allegiance by offering ever lower prices! Asda, the price leader for supermarkets, is investing £300 million this year in lower prices, part of a £1 billion programme over the next five years. Tesco is slashing sku numbers to simplify its offer and reduce costs. Yet, still, there is a significant gap in prices between the big boys and the hard discounters and the so-called retail theatre in “The Big Sheds” of Asda/Tesco etc. (e.g. fancy coffee shops, restaurants, take out food concessions) are insufficient to woo shoppers away from limited assortment discounters. What’s more, the stature of Aldi and Lidl continues to grow: Aldi announcing that it is the first retail partner for the UK Olympic team for Brazil; and Lidl with its award-winning premium own label products stealing the show from the supermarkets.

In short, it looks a very tough journey for “traditional” supermarkets over the next couple of years: on-line growth will reduce volume through the big stores; as will volume losses at the margin to convenience stores; hard discount and pound store pressure will be inexorable; and savvy shoppers will get even savvier in an increasingly transparent and multi-channel market environment. We may see a slimming down of grocery retail players in the UK market. Fingers crossed that zero inflation doesn’t drift down into morbid deflation (Japanese-style stagflation) where shoppers hold off big ticket purchases in anticipation of even lower prices to come! But, hey, let’s end on an upbeat note. In the UK, our population is increasing (whereas it’s declining in Germany/Spain/Italy), household incomes are growing again, interest in food and where it comes from is on the up, and consumers are willing and able to reward grocery industry players who deliver on grocery price/quality values and social values. Onwards!

Source The Grocer

Source The Grocer

Posted in General

Waitrose: The Silent Expansion

unnamed (1)The global supermarket chain “beasts” Walmart, Carrefour and Tesco have struggled through the recession and its stuttering recovery. Analysts have called for them to concentrate on regaining lost profitability in their home markets but it is these developed, mature markets that are under deflationary pressures. So, how to grow? In the UK, Waitrose has been steaming ahead, notwithstanding its premium price position in the market place. What’s more, like Marks & Spencer, Waitrose has sniffed sales opportunities for its products in overseas markets, particularly those with strong expatriate populations – Dubai and Abu Dhabi, for example, have 200,000+ Britons who were weaned on pork pies, Marmite and cream cakes and they have the disposable incomes to afford indulgent treats!

Waitrose private label products are sold in selected supermarket outlets in 50 countries across the world. Most of these countries have strong connections with Britain – whether it be the Commonwealth connection like Australia, South Africa and Barbados, retirement favourites such as Spain, strong business links as per Hong Kong, high income countries with no immediate cultural link but where the UK and London in particular is fashionable, South Korea comes to mind, or more randomly up market supermarkets in emerging countries that seek to benefit from Waitrose’s premium halo – for example, a lone premium supermarket we visited in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. While the UK is hardly world famous for its cuisine, the food halls in Harrods, Fortnum & Mason and Selfridge’s are tourist destinations for those visiting London and celebratory chefs such as Jamie Oliver and Gordon Ramsey have served to raise the profile of British foods. Waitrose capitalises on this anglophilial food trend.

Waitrose provides an exclusive private label source for supermarkets seeking to attract expatriate shoppers in many countries. Also,it has a licensing deal with Spinneys of the UAE to run stores under the Waitrose banner but run by Spinneys. Licensing a brand name comes with risk, of course, and a licensing deal in Bahrain dissolved when the local partner filed for bankruptcy! In the great scheme of things, the overseas revenue generated by Waitrose products sales is not great but accounts for about 5% of total sales and provides incremental volume to Waitrose’s private label suppliers.

Is Waitrose a global brand? No – but for sentimental British expatriates and those that want the full British food experience to complement reading a Harry Potter novel or, God forbid, watching Jeremy Clarkson and the Top Gear lads, Waitrose products are available around the world and make their own tiny contribution to culinary globalisation!

unnamed

Tagged with:
Posted in Premium

TV Interview to Prof David Hughes. BNN – Changing Plates: The future of food

Professor David Hughes joins BNN (Canada) to predict the next big trends affecting food industry.

BNN – Watch TV Online | Changing Plates: The future of food – Part 2: Global food volatility.

BNN - Future of Food

Posted in Consumer, Trends

How low can you go?

Fifty three years ago (1962), Chubby Checker had a hit parade smash success with “Limbo Rock” which had the memorable strap line “How Low Can You Go?!”. It sounds like the clarion call of the UK grocery industry this year!
£poundstretcher is a small grocery chain from the UK which competes in the dollar/pound league rubbing shoulders with Poundland and 99p Stores. At the end of the last fiscal year, £poundstretcher had around 400 stores and £400 million in sales. Whereas the supermarket big boys tremble at the onslaught of the hard discounters Aldi and Lidl, the likes of £poundstretcher look them in the eye and say “Bring it on!”. Last month, £poundstretcher advertisements in the press exhorted shoppers to see how much they can save by shopping with them rather than with “pricey” Aldi and Lidl! The hard discounters emphasise the great value associated with their Aldi/Lidl exclusive brands. £poundstretcher shouts “Try and match us on national brands!”. The pound shops are not being altruistic with their under a pound pricing. They are aided and abetted by the major fmcg companies who are ready and willing to produce pack sizes that meet this rock bottom round price amount.
Relative small fry although the pound shops may be, they are in the same shopper pond as the German hard discounters. It reminds us that “we’re the lowest price retailer come and shop here” has always has provoked a competitor to emerge with an even lower price offer. Good news for the consumer? Maybe but remember the insightful words of quixotic Oscar Wilde: “”Nowadays, people know the price of everything and the value of nothing”! Chubby Checker’s Limbo Rock song lyrics don’t compete with the plays of Oscar Wilde but, on grocery prices, “How Low Can You Go?”!
basket-comparative-aldibasket-comparative-lidlsugar-comparative
Tagged with: , ,
Posted in Consumer, Promotions

Cheaper by the Dozen!

The Big Supermarket Boys are under tremendous pressure these days, not least trying to slow the rampaging growth of the hard discounters, Aldi and Lidl and the irritating nibbling of the pound stores. Pre-recession, hard discounters picked up a small proportion of the grocery basket of the majors. Now, income constrained shoppers do their full shop in the discounters. What’s more, well-heeled shoppers are proud to show off their savvy credentials and browse the shelves of Aldi and Lidl for those “treasure hunt” premium items before heading off to Tesco and Sainsbury’s to do their main shop! An out and out price war is underway which is good news for consumers but selling more groceries for less money is very worrisome for retailers. Supermarket received a  sharp rap on the knuckles from their customers who admonishingly said “don’t try and confuse us with fancy promotions, just give us easy-to-understand lower prices”.
We note that bulk selling has come back in vogue (see pics.) – a ploy used by market traders for centuries – and, now, a promotional feature for Tesco and Asda. It’s cheaper by the dozen! Interesting move but edging into CostCo territory! We’re a little dubious about bulk packs in the UK – this isn’t the USA where big cars, 3 car garages and more room for “clutter and stuff” are the norm! Excuse me for the moment, I have to work out where to store 40 packets of crisps and enough Weetabix to last the family until Michaelmas!
unnamed-1
unnamed
Tagged with: , , ,
Posted in Promotions

Waitrose. It is worth to care for your customers.

As we claw ourselves out of one of the worst recessions since the Depression of the 1930’s, UK retailers who have prospered through the economic maelstrom are those at either end of the price continuum: hard discounters and premium food stores. Waitrose, a “fine food” supermarket chain increased its grocery market share from 4.0% in 2008 to 5.2% by early-2015. How have they done this during the recession? Keeping their ears finely tuned to the wants of their shoppers, of course, but sometimes acting counter-intuitively – shouting about price, for example which is surprising given that a basket of grocery items from Waitrose is consistently as much as 20% higher than in, say, Asda!

The very successful launch of an entry price own label – “Waitrose Essentials” – served to reassure their loyal customers that Waitrose was trying very hard for them to keep prices down and as close to the “big” supermarket chains ass possible. “Essentials”, presented in simple white packaging and crossing all categories even the luxury ones (olive and jojoba bath foam can hardly be thought of as essential – but, maybe it is for the higher income Waitrose shoppers!), now, account for 20% of sales. On key branded items, like Heinz ketchup, Waitrose matched Tesco and Sainsbury prices and told their customers so!
Waitrose capitalised on the British infatuation with coffee shops by offering a free coffee or tea to any customer with a myWaitrose card, irrespective of whether they bought anything or not in the store. But, if you buy £5 of groceries, you can have a free “Times” or “Daily Mail” newspaper to read whilst having a hot drink. During January, most of their competitors sought to assuage the guilt of Christmas and New Year over-indulgence by offering specials on healthy products. Waitrose stressed reductions to “half price”  on branded items and fresh products which is not a tack one would expect a premium retailer to take. Rich people like to save, too and sales are galloping along at a 2-4% increase which is well above the industry average.
Clearly, Waitrose is showing it can drive footfall and purchases through its stores. It is employee-owned  and this shows in the high level of service and inter-action with staff that is characteristic of the retailer. Shoppers know that they pay more in Waitrose – but their view is that they “pay more for more” and, still, have little treats like free coffee and newspapers. Waitrose may not be top of the grocery league in 2015, but it will continue to show the big boys how to score in an exceedingly competitive market.
essential_topsellers_large (1)
Tagged with:
Posted in Loyalty, Premium, Promotions
Dr. Food Weekly Food Business Insights
Please, visit our new project, a platform about food trends and their implications for businesses: Dr. Food Weekly Food Business Insights/

Enter your email address to follow this blog and authorise us to send you notifications of new posts by email.
If you want to register for Dr Food Weekly Food Business Insights check the top menu please.

Join 433 other subscribers
About the authors
Prof David Hughes: Around the world, David speaks to senior agribusiness and food industry managers about global food industry developments that are and will affect their businesses and industry. Energetic, engaging, humorous and insightful, David gains the very highest evaluations at seminars, conferences and Board level discussions in every continent he visits. Miguel Flavián: works for several Spanish organisations and companies to help them to learn from the developments of the British grocery market and improve their business back home.