Ten Pointers About the Food Chain Post-Covid

We don’t usually reach for a quote from Lenin to kick-off a blog but, in a pensive moment, Vladimir Ilyich mused “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. Ten weeks of lockdown, with travel limited to a walk to the end of the garden, has given us lots of time to read and observe what’s happening in the world of food business. Our conclusion is that Covid-19 has accelerated existing trends and forces, so, buckle your seat belts and keep a weather eye. We’re going to try our best to give you a list of pointers on the outcome of the pandemic and how it has and will affect the agribusiness and food industry. Here goes:

1.     The business impact and opportunities will depend on the shape of the curve in your markets.

The popular view  of the alphabet of economic recovery is that we’ll see a V shape –  i.e. the cataclysm we are or have just been through, followed by a sharp recovery (and, fingers crossed, an effective V for vaccine). That’s what the IMF thinks but others, such as ING’s view for the German economy is that it’ll be more U shaped and, what’s more, the U will have a flat bottom – “the route to normality will be long”. Let’s hope it’s not a W – dive, sharp recovery but a coronavirus spike in the Autumn/Fall causing another dive or, even worse, a L – after the dive, we bump along the economic bottom for months. You can’t assume that it’s going to be a V, so, what’s your plan if it isn’t?

2.     The business impacts and opportunities will depend on each country’s experience managing and living through the Covid-19 epidemic.

Let’s contrast experiences in the UK and Thailand, countries with similar sized populations (68/69 million each). From March to the end of May, Thailand had 3,000 cases and 60 deaths; the UK had 265,000 cases and 38,000 deaths. We’d wager that, as they are doing now, Thais will be flocking into their restaurants, masked albeit and tipping their hats to a modicum of social distancing. Actually, when the malls opened in late-May, customers were required to show their national identity cards and download a tracking app. Thais won’t be wary of brushing against other Thais but they’ll be terrified of any contact with Europeans unless they have a big sign on their heads announcing “I was Covid-19 cleared when I landed at Bangkok Airport”!

British, Spanish, French and Italian consumers, likely, will be much more circumspect dining in close confined restaurants, browsing in packed shopping malls and travelling to social events cheek by jowl on public transport. This suggests that the restaurant sector, in particular, will be on a long road to recovery but disappointing in-house revenues will be bolstered by burgeoning meal deliveries courtesy of Uber Eats, Deliveroo, Just Eat et al.

It looks likely that Asian economies will recover quicker than those in the “West”, not least because most (e.g. Japan, South Korea) were roughed up considerably less by Covid-19 than Western countries. This is good news for food exporters to, in particular, the higher income Asian countries. But recession in North America and Europe is bad news for economies in other regions who target high income Western markets.

3.     The biggest impact by far of Covid-19 will be its dreadful legacy of reduced household incomes for the large majority of consumers.

Reducing choice to optimise supply chain and deliver at minimum overhead costs. Selling wholesale products was the attempt of Sainsbury’s to stock tomato sauce when consumers where panic buying.

We’ll see a scramble for value right across the globe  as consumers seek to maintain standards of living by increasingly savvy shopping and their scrimping, particularly for food, will affect product and service purchases and choice of sales channels for every food business:

  • premium meats such as beef and lamb will struggle to compete with lower-priced pork, chicken (although, in the short-term, meat prices globally will be lifted by massive Chinese imports of pork to replace local pork eliminated through African Swine Fever culling), and affordable eggs. As we’ve already seen in many Western meat markets, carcase balance will continue to be an issue as shoppers seek lower value cuts;
  • it’ll be the same story for premium fish and seafood;
  • plant protein meat substitutes (e.g. Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods) will need to pare back their prices to be more competitive with regular meat if they are to maintain their meteoric sales growth;
  • and for premium fruit & vegetables  – on domestic and export markets, premium cherries, berries and stone fruit will be under particular pressure;
  • in the early days of lockdown when panic shopping was rife, consumers accepted less choice as their focus was on procuring the basics. Is a longer-term trade off for the income-constrained  shopper, less choice but lower prices on essential products?;
  • even eco-sensitive shoppers will trade down (as they did after the global financial crisis of 2007/8) and seek more affordable “planet savers” – it’s not that they will value less “green” initiatives and important social attributes relating to, for example,  animal welfare, it’s their pragmatic view will be “financial needs must”;
  • worrisomely, coming out of the Covid-19 crisis, income distribution will have worsened in many countries (frighteningly so if we have a W rather than a V or U recovery) – a growing gap between haves and have nots. After us all “pulling together” through the pandemic crisis, this will foment social division encouraging political populism with all its negative aspects.

4.     Longer-term changes in food shopping and eating out post-Covid.

In process is an acceleration of the trends that were evident for grocery shopping pre-Covid, i.e. much more online grocery shopping with concerns about “supermarkets choosing my fresh food” reduced as a result of acceptable experience during the lockdown. Top up shopping from local convenience stores will continue to see growth. Hard discounters, particularly when they have fine-tuned their online offer, will take more market share from traditional supermarkets. Don’t expect multi-channel retailer, Tesco, to fall over – its “Aldi Price Match” offers on its fake farm-branded fresh meat and produce (e.g. Rosedene Farms) are effective hard discount foils but one of the supermarket Big Boys is going to get in trouble.

We’ll see significant disruption in food service post-Covid exacerbating the troubles of those businesses that have focused exclusively on serving the restaurant trade (helping their food service customers introduce takeaway offers would be a well-received service). It’ll take time for diners to have the confidence to return to sit down restaurants, even with tables suitably spaced and staff exuding good hygiene practices. Customers will have to get used to 2 or even 3 “sittings” – e.g. 6 to 8 pm and 8 pm to late. The importance of re-building the confidence of tourists to travel to holiday destinations is paramount – tourism is 10% of global GDP! Restaurants will supplement sit down customer revenues with an increasingly sophisticated takeaway offer. QSR and Food-2-Go chains (e.g. Pret) will recover well. Contactless ordering and payment will be a common feature. Look out for vending machine developments (delivering tasty food and drink rather than fizzy pop and sugar-loaded snacks – they’re already in place in Japan and South Korea) with no point of human contact.

Maker Business Profile: Crické, Insect Based Snacks | Make:
Good for us! We haven’t mentioned in the whole post insects as a future food!

5.     Scary times raises consumer concerns about safety, health and food security which affect everybody in the food chain.

We’ve all becoming more germophobic so don’t touch!  Spanish supermarket advertisements start and finish with a promise on “Safe Shopping”. The Japanese are inveterate mask-wearers and bow on greeting rather than shake hands – 2 reasons suggested why the Covid-19 death count in Japan is one-fortieth of the UK, even although they have an aged population which is twice the size of the UK, packed into big  cities (Greater Tokyo is the largest metropolitan area in the world making London appear a minnow). Get used to masks, gloves galore, plenty of perspex, hand sanitizer, and contactless ordering and payment to build consumer confidence and don’t forget social distancing which will be with us for the foreseeable future. In restaurants, we will to have to leave the details of all of the people dinning with us so they can be traced if anyone starts coughing a few days later! This brings additional cost without much chance of it being recouped. In Asia, there’ll be an accelerated rationalisation of traditional wet markets. In the West and, for the moment, we’ll be less wracked with guilt about using “evil” plastic packaging, although the pressure will be there to make it recyclable  and preferably compostable sooner rather than later. In fact, any initiative that makes shopping faster will be welcomed and rewarded – for safety and simple time-saving reasons.

Carrefour Oferta actual 20.05 - 08.06.2020 - folleto-24.com
Carrefour: calling all germophobic and health conscious shoppers to come for shopping!

Being locked down for 10 weeks has given us more time to think of our health and how we might improve and gain more control over it. Notwithstanding that indulgent snacking and drinking at home has gone through the roof, consumers say they want to eat healthier and exercise more such that they can be self-reliant – we may love the NHS in the UK and, certainly, we want it on tap but for me and my family “only in extremis”. Food that is perceived to be healthier is firmly on-trend but it should be real food, i.e. not food that has the bad stuff taken out and good stuff added. Healthiness relates to much more than just me and my family, but to the local community and local businesses, the environment, farmers and their animals. Are we willing to pay extra to improve the health of our society? The spirit is willing but the pocket book is weak!

Declining household incomes will reduce the degree of eco-activity in otherwise green-leaning families, but the longer-term trend of selecting climate-friendly diets will regain its 2019 strength (Beyond Meat’s share price doubled in April/May). Expect organic foods to struggle but, as organic’s proxy, local foods and local food retailers will do well. Expect to see burgeoning demand for intrinsically healthy fresh fruit and vegetables – yes, but only if they are convenient to prepare and consume. Remember, convenience trumps health. Frozen foods have received a fillip from lockdown – their storability was and is a plus but, then, we’ve found out that they have the quality of chilled products and at a lower price.

6.     Renaissance for Home Cooking?

We shall be spending more time at home and, therefore, we’ll eat more of our snacks and meals at home. That’s good news for supermarkets but, also, good news for Food-2-Go specialists, meal kit specialists (e.g. Mindful Chef, Simply Cook, Abel & Cole) and for the scourge of city streets Deliveroo, Uber Eats, Just Eat et al! Will we be cooking more from scratch actually using, if you’ll excuse the old fashioned term, ingredients? Our recipe repertoires may have improved slightly over lockdown, and we may have produced a sour dough loaf after much experimentation, but we haven’t been transmogrified into a nation of Mary Berrys! We’ll purchase meal components that we will then bolt together to present, with a flourish, as our home cooked meal! Mind you, for families really income-constrained (1.6 million families used a foodbank in the UK in 2019 and early-2020 – a shocking statistic for a “high income developed country”), combining ingredients is a cheaper route to preparing a meal than purchasing something part-prepared.

asda restaurant home
Asda capitalising on consumers’ craving for restaurant food and the lockdown of consumers at home: buy from Asda the restaurant-based sauces and the ingredients to recreate their meals at home! Source: The Grocer/Asda

7.     Disruption in the food supply chain.

Supply chains and their operations are in a constant state of evolution and even disruption and this has been accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic. In general, “the global food system has weathered the challenge of covid-19” (The Economist) – the exceptions are meat processing particularly in North America, labour issues with the harvesting of fresh produce, and supply chain interruptions for fresh fish and seafood (e.g. air freight shipments of shellfish collapsed as air travel came to an abrupt halt)  . But above our current tribulations, we have the Internet of Things (IoT) transforming our food system at every level in the chain, such as:

  • with “home as the hub”, increasingly, we are reliant on technology  and much more than simply for ordering our groceries & meals. When did you last open a recipe book when YouTube is a click away? ;
  • supermarkets are developing apps  for queue management, robots to check on-shelf availability, and to pack shopping orders in “dark stores”, and there’s the on-going revolution to match Big Data with “loyalty card” data to provide personalised grocery and meal deal offers to each family;
Milk spilling causes traffic congestion at Aldi’s door. Source: The Independent.
  • much more automation and encrypted information flow across the supply chain from the home and from the restaurant back to the farm which provides opportunities to match better supply and demand and to reduce waste;
  • consumers want to know more about where their food comes from and how it is produced – this translates into greater transparency and traceability in the chain with blockchain one technological option.

8.     Greater robustness and resilience in supply chains.

 As we said earlier, the global food supply chain has, all things considered, done pretty well. But, there’s been sufficient shocks for major players to take hard looks at their supply chains to ensure that, in the next crisis (and there will be plenty), they won’t be hung out to dry because of the lack of key ingredients and services. Likely, this means that supply chains will be shorter and closer bound  with, hopefully, partnerships being real, i.e. stronger, longer-lasting, rather than simply partnership promises comprising fine but fluffy words!

9.     Food security concerns elevated.

 To repeat, consumers have been pretty well served in terms of food supply during the lockdown. Yes, there’s been a run on flour and occasional shortages of eggs, but most folk have been able to buy their gluten-free brioche when needed! David, a veteran of food rationing from the early-1950s, thinks that whingeing namby-pamby consumers should get a life and be force fed Woolton Pie (Google it!). But, a positive outcome of consumer concern about food security is that it has and will continue to drive demand for locally-produced foods which can be purchased from local businesses. There’s a challenge here for the local product – to make it convenient to buy (in terms of availability) and to communicate loudly and clearly its benefits for consumers. Remember, in a post-Brexit world for UK agriculture and food, there’ll be keenly-priced food items from our new trading partners that will be attractive to many consumers seeking to put affordable meals on the family table.

The crisis has raised governmental concerns about food security. This raises a red flag as a political response is to support calls for more food self-sufficiency in a country. On the surface this may appear rational but it is, also, the thin edge of the wedge in terms of disrupting freer trade around the world. We’ve been a major importer of food in the UK for 150 years (since the repeal of the Corn Laws). If we can build self-sufficiency with world class efficiency that’s one thing, if we just put up tariff walls at the expense of both consumers and historic trading partners that’s another. Looking at food prices across the globe through the coronavirus crisis, only rice has spiked and why? Because the Vietnamese government put a block on rice exports. As there are only 4 major exporters of rice, removing a major player from the market spawns frenzied buying by consumers (it’s sort of like Kimberly-Clark stopping the shipment of Andrex with the consequential crazy impact on shoppers’ toilet paper buying behaviour – sound familiar?!).

10. What are you doing to make things easier and better for your customers during the Covid-19 crisis?

Before, during and after this dreadful pandemic is expunged, consumers have and will be asking those that sell them products and services “What’s the purpose of your business? How are you contributing to society? How are you making things better for me and my family?”. It is very useful if you have answers to these questions. Take a look at what Unilever and Danone are doing – they recognise that brands with a purpose grow faster than those that simply have a raw commercial rationale. Danone has just become an “enterprise à mission” whereby its purpose and objectives in the social and environmental fields are set out in the company’s articles of association and its performance on these are measured each year by an independent auditor. If something good can come out of this dreadful coronavirus pandemic, it could be that companies globally recognise  that being good is good for business!

Unilever #StaySafe on Twitter: "Q1 Results 2020: Covid-19 is ...

Unilever #StaySafe on Twitter: "We are donating disinfectants and ...
Posted in Consumer, General, Supply Chain, Sustainability, Trends

Trust Me, I’m a Farmer (or Fisherman)!

Big corporates – supermarkets and fmcg – are courting farmers and fisherfolk again. Is this a Covid-19 thing that induces love for primary food producers? Yes but it’s more than a kneejerk coronavirus response. One outcome of a pandemic or, indeed, even a lesser disaster, is that consumers become more worried about their food – where does it come from?, will it be available? who produced it and how? Gaining this knowledge gives them a comforting feeling of authenticity, quality and product integrity when buying and eating food. Picking up these consumer vibes, supermarkets are swift to show their adulation of and support for their nation’s food producers.

Morrison’s have just announced the opening of new steak and seafood bars “to help struggling British farmers and fishermen” and have offered their 2700 farmer suppliers a 5% discount on grocery shopping. M&S have launched a campaign “to encourage support for British farmers” and have long used farmer images in-store to emphasise farmer partnerships.  Hard discounter Aldi isn’t shy about communicating its British food credentials. There at in Spain, too – Auchan wants to be the farmer’s friend. Across The Atlantic, American grocers are no different – Kroger (No. 2 to Walmart) is promising to source produce locally, as is Wegman’s (the American Waitrose equivalent). Mind you, most supermarkets flirt, or have dalliances with their farmer suppliers of, particularly, fresh meat, fruit & vegetables, and milk. Market research shows consistently that shoppers’ perception of fresh food quality, range and price are key criteria used in choice of store. So, supermarkets want “to own” fresh food and build stories around their fresh food partnerships to differentiate themselves  from competitors.

Partnerships between supermarkets and farmers don’t and never have reflected equality. No surprises here – in the UK, 6 supermarkets account for 75+% of fresh food sales which are supplied by thousands of farmers. Only at the premium end of the market, where the retail pack is adorned with a multitude of adjectives (e.g. farmer name/provenance, specific rare breed), is there a modicum of longer-term commitment if the supplier guarantees exclusivity. Also, supermarkets can be equivocal on farmer partnerships and commitment to British produce, for example:

  • Tesco’s “faux” farm brands for meat and produce don’t please every farmer or food activist;
  •  hard discounter Lidl, with enough cheek for another row of teeth, extolling its Birchwood Farm brand for fresh meat sold in England and Strathvale Farm for Scotland – the nearest either of these farms have been to verdant pasture is the front lawn of the advertising copywriter!;
  • and Sainsbury’s and Asda both besmirched their commitment to British fresh food in April by importing Polish beef during a “beef crisis”. Really, you lot, why would you wish to incur the wrath of the farming fraternity for a tiny amount of mince that wouldn’t satisfy an Essex trencherman? We hope the supermarket meat buyers responsible got a good slap on their wrists from their Seniors.

Telling stories about partnerships in the food chain are not solely the prerogative of supermarkets. “Big Food” fmcg companies are keen to share stories about their direct links with farmer suppliers and, often, it’s in their direct interests to do so to ensure supply but, also, to please a surprising proportion of consumers who want to know the brand story. Why? Because there’s an appetite for knowledge on where the ingredients come from. In turn, this drives the food industry to improve transparency and traceability in the supply chain:

  • small-scale cocoa farmers in West Africa were slowly going bust prompting Mars to launch “Cocoa for Generations” aimed at protecting and rewarding families in cocoa-farming communities whilst ensuring that Mars have a secure future supply of cocoa for  its confectionery;
  • Côte d’Ivoire cocoa farmers are receiving Covid-19 health and safety updates via Cargill’s digital farming tool. Good for the farmers and good for Cargill’s cocoa supply and its corporate image;
  • a “Thank My Farmer” app powered by IBM Blockchain gives consumers the ability to trace their coffee beans with an interactive map. The app has been developed by, inter alia, Jacobs Douwe Egberts, J.M. Smucker, the Columbian Coffee Growers’ Federation and Rabobank;
  • the Italian pasta and biscuit baron, Barilla, celebrates the local grain farmers that produce the wheat and rapeseed used in its products;
  • Warburtons long-standing wheat growing partnerships with UK and Canadian grain farmers is part and parcel of the Warburton bakery story;
  • Weetabix earns plaudits from its customers by sourcing wheat from growers farming within 50 miles radius of the factory in Northamptonshire.

From a farmer perspective, the worm’s turned – supermarkets and food manufacturers want stronger associations with farmers (and fisherfolk – admired hunters of the sea as they are). They want farmers to be team mates. Farmer friendliness and strong rural connections are good for building brand loyalty for “Big Food” companies seeking relevance in a turbulent world .

So, what’s so sexy about farmers and farming? The more urban-based we have become, the less we know about how our food is produced and the more we yearn for the bucolic! Let’s be fair, there’s more romance in growing crops and cute animals than there is in the bits of the food chain that follow on from farming – slaughtering, mincing, grinding, emulsifying, packaging, warehousing, transporting and putting it out on supermarket shelves! And we love underdogs and love to hate bullies – enter stage right the good guys, i.e. farmers and stage left the bad guys, i.e. supermarkets. However, there are complexities – we want farmers to be paid more/assured a fair price, but we don’t want supermarkets to raise prices!

Relative to other food industry participants, farmers are more trusted. They haven’t always been so. Agriculture had a bad patch in the 1970s and BSE wasn’t helpful. Thelwell and Heath captured this in cartoons  during the dark period when urban consumers were falling “out of love with agriculture”.

But, like producing crops, growing and maintaining trust requires education, resources, plans, and assiduous, meticulous cultivation. Trust building is becoming increasingly challenging for farmers as commercial agriculture goes through accelerating change. Consumers’ perceptions of farming (the rural idyll) will lag agricultural development as farmers embrace 21st Century technology – robotics, manipulation of the microbiome and gene editing (e.g. using CRISPR), precision agriculture, etc. – and non-farm food production (e.g. growing meat in a commercial lab) gains traction. Beware, in history, agribusiness and farming advanced whilst the industry kept schtum only to scare the food consumer when advances were revealed after the fact (the launch of Roundup Ready comes to mind).

How can farmers capitalise on being trusted by consumers and viewed as an important partner with grocery supermarkets and food manufacturers? There’s a job to be done (and is in process) at every level of the agriculture and food industry. A co-ordinated strategy embracing major industry players is fundamental and harnessing the passion and enthusiasm of individual producers is its life blood. The likes of LEAF with Open Farm Sunday  and Farmer Time for schools are brilliant examples at the national level and there is lots to learn from, say, Italy with its Agriturismo.

We worry that farmers are, often, characterised as being “oppressed, struggling, needy”. A distinctly more positive perception of farmers would be helpful, viz.:

  • in tune with consumer and citizen values;
  • progressive but sensitive to their key role in safeguarding and improving our countryside heritage (reminding tax payers why investment in public goods-producing ELMS is good for society);
  • modern, efficient food-producing businesses providing food security for the nation.

Remember, when it comes to building trust, connecting with shared values is key. Education and communication of the reality of modern agriculture is complementary but secondary. New wave farming business people (millennials and younger!) are more positive, proactive and adept at using social media to tell their story than their parents who preferred to keep their heads down until there was a problem and, then, whinge to largely unsympathetic politicians.

The above is all fine and dandy but what can an individual farm business do to capitalise on farmers becoming fashionable? If we had answers, we’d have told you long ago! It’s always going to be tough producing something that is close to being identical to the production of thousands of others which is sold into a highly concentrated industry. But, it’s a good start to look over the gate and find out what consumers are wanting to buy, through which channels, and whether the business’s production strengths are consonant with the requirements of our customers. A focus on being the very best lowest cost producer is fundamental for a successful commodity farmer. Yet, a niche market opportunity doesn’t mean an inconsequential one. We’ve been consistent in our blogs to remind businesses that mass markets are splintering. Look out for what your customers and final consumers value and are willing to pay a premium for. We characterise this as searching for the value-adding adjectives (e.g. a real not a fake farm name) that you can add to the commodity nouns (e.g. beef, pork)! Finally, as Spanish farmers reminded their customers and consumers in a recent farmer demonstration – “Si el campo no produce, la ciudad no come”! (If farms don’t produce, the city doesn’t eat). We think that’s well said.  

“Los problemas del campo vienen de lejos y de ministerios que han dado la patada al balón y han seguido para no contrariar a los poderosos”
Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in Consumer, Fresh Products, Sustainability

Could Fake Meat “Out-Chicken” Chicken?

How’re you all doing? Miguel’s family had a scare – his wife was very poorly for 3 weeks but is much better now. David, self-isolating in his bunker, has been grumbling about Government spokespeople listing the criteria for those considered particularly high risk which seems to include everything pertaining to him apart from his postal code! He’s peevish, too, that he sees more of the Tesco grocery delivery guy than his grandchildren.

Here’s some thoughts on the wider protein market and what it takes to do well. We’ll sneak in a few points on Covid-19 and its impact on the food industry at the end because one’s obliged to but, largely, this is a coronavirus-free blog.

There is a clear global mega-trend towards more climate-friendly and planet-friendly foods driven by younger consumers (your children and grandchildren), the UN and several of its agencies, and individual governments. The influential and occasionally irritating Greta Thunberg plus a legion of social media activists have captured the lion’s share of media attention but, this is no fad, and planet-friendly views  will be reinforced in the aftermath of this round of coronavirus. Not a loony special interest group but UBS, a  traditional conservative Swiss investment bank opines that “the plant-based food category is expected to surge to US$85bn. over the next few years as people seek out alternative options to meat that are more environmentally-friendly”. Whether we like it or not, there will be “enviro-traffic lights” on foods just like there are health traffic lights now (“nutri-scores” in EU parlance) – enviro-labelling is already in the market place.

Time to panic for the global meat industry? NO: increasing the protein content of the diet is seriously on-trend and the envy of carbohydrate and sugar producers. Savvy producers of meat and plant protein products (e.g. new age jerky snacks and cereal-based “health” bars) are quick to highlight their protein credentials on front of pack, let alone on the ingredient list on the back.

Who are these interlopers seducing consumers with new protein options?:

  • Krave meat and plant-based jerky – owned by the iconic chocolate bar owners Hershey;
  • Nature Valley – owned by “Big Food” General Mills;
  •  Kellogg’s – aren’t they the breakfast cereal people?!

The arrival of “Big Food” into the protein snack market ups the competitive ante for traditional meat companies and “Big Food’ comes with considerable consumer marketing skills and nous.

Global protein consumption grew by 40% between 2000 and 2020 and, over the next 5 years, it’s expected to increase by a further 15%. But, remember, there’s much more than meat under the protein umbrella:

  • Plant-based protein is the largest protein category but it’s growing much slower than others;
  • Eggs and dairy are increasing like an express train;
  • Chicken, pork and fish/seafood dominate the overall meat category and are in very healthy growth (although, ASF will constrain supply growth in the short- to medium-term);
  •  Aquaculture is the fastest growing category – particularly for Asian-grown basa (pangasius) and tilapia;
  • Wild catch fish is the slowest growth category with sustainable supply being a big issue;
  • “Non-traditional” protein (composite category including “fake” plant-based meat and insects) is in spectacular growth but from a tiny base;
  • Emerging Asia and Africa are the regions were consumption is in fastest growth with Europe and higher income Asia being the slowest;
  • And China has the world’s largest total consumption share and this will continue through this decade.
Source: FIAL, “The Global Protein Market: The Size of the Prize”, Australia, 2019

We’re getting used to global business disruptors such as Amazon and Alibaba in grocery, Uber in personal transport, and Airbnb in room rentals  (it took Hilton 100 years to accumulate 250,000 rooms across  the globe and Airbnb a decade to top the million). Could plant-based and cell-based meats be the mega-disruptors in the global meat industry in the decade we’ve just entered? Let’s take a look at a massive long-term disruptor in the global meat industry and use the impact of chicken in the US as our example. Over 60 years, chicken has come  from lowly levels to dominate the US meat scene. Beef has drifted lower year-by-year for 50 years and pork struggles to maintain historic consumption levels.

Source: USDA based on retail weight (incl. edible offal). Forecast for 2020.

What accounts for the success of chicken?. It has out-performed other meats on the consumer’s check list but, along with the others, struggled on the citizen’s check list. The former list comprises the attributes of chicken that are consistently identified in meat market research around the globe. Chicken is seen as being:

  • Affordable;
  • Healthy and nutritious;
  • High, quality protein content;
  • Versatile;
  • Snackable;
  • Easy to add taste;
  • Can be eaten hot and cold;
  • Kids like and will eat without a fuss;
  • Food service favourite and suits fast food;
  • Widely available;
  • Increasingly, fits all meal and snack occasions (see McD’s and Chicken for Breakfast);
  • Often, has local provenance (e.g. British chicken, Farmer Smith’s);
  • Products are consumer-orientated (e.g. nuggets), not carcase-based product names;
  • Wide product range;
  • Decent shelf-life;
  • Largely seen as safe – notwithstanding occasional salmonella and campylobacter scandals and chicken flu (avian influenza) issues in foreign markets;
  • Religion neutral.
Add Another Meal or Snack Occasion and Grow Your Market hugely

Competitors must look at their products through consumers’ eyes and honestly measure the performance of their protein against the long list of chicken attributes listed above. Processed pork products probably come closest with their affordability and convenience attributes being key.

What about the citizen’s checklist? Here, chicken does less well but leads on climate-friendly and environmentally-friendly vis-à-vis its land-based meat competitors. Arguably (in the eyes of consumers), plant-based and in prospect cell-based meat proteins score higher on citizen attributes such as climate/environment, human health, and animal welfare. Eco-active consumers, some universities (e.g. Goldsmiths, University of London, University of East Anglia Student Union) and some public sector food service divisions are increasingly modifying their food purchases on the basis of citizen issues (with beef being a particular target). They wish their purchases to “make a difference” to an ever growing list of social issues. So, what about the relative weightings of consumer attributes and citizen attributes? We’re not sure: the importance of citizen attributes are growing fast BUT for the majority of consumers, consumer attributes trump citizen attributes when push comes to shove (a bit like convenience trumps health in food product selection). In many countries facing real declines in household income over the next few years, the eco-purchase may be more aspirational than practical when the family food budget is tight.

Could “Fake Meat’ Out-Chicken Chicken? Only if its performance on the consumer and, to a lesser extent, citizen attributes outperforms chicken. That’s unlikely to happen in a hurry. In the medium-term, plant-based meats and cell-based meats later will have a significant place in the overall market but only modest relative to the real thing. In the longer-term, cell-based meats may be the massive long-term disruptor. We’re a long way from seeing “fake meat” steaks, fillets and chops, but comminuted products such as burgers, sausages and nuggets are already with us and will only grow in market importance. Remember, there’ll be a veggie in the majority of households by mid-decade and the purchaser and preparer won’t want Brenda to veto the meal!

Now, if we still have your attention, we’ll slip in some top of mind thoughts on the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on the global meat industry:

  • We are facing a deep global recession – i.e. sharply falling real household incomes in many maybe most countries – this will increase demand for food staples (the relatively cheap everyday items that are core to our diets and fill our tummies) and decrease demand for premium foods. From a meat perspective, that benefits chicken and farmed fish, presents a strong challenge for premium-priced beef and lamb, and is so so for mid-priced pork;
  • Asian economies will recover quicker than Europe and North America – good news for export-orientated meat companies;
  • The picture for pork is less predictable – the impact of African Swine Fever and the time it takes for particularly the Asian pork industry to recover will determine how long global pork demand remains strong, irrespective of the Covid-19 impact;
  • Currently, there is no direct links between Covid-19 and food and its packaging (i.e. concerns about being infected from touching/eating specific foods is very low relative to concerns about infection from other humans). However, watch this space and expect supply chain slowdowns because of increasing food safety checks at borders;
  • Global food supply chains are robust, particularly for long shelf-life commodities (e.g. grains, oilseeds) but unexpected supply chain disruptions for meat products (e.g. ASF, AI, unpredictable climate events, nasty trade spats) will add to business risk;
  • Mid-pandemic crises will cause food processing disruptions – e.g. the labour shortages resulting in Tyson, JBS and Cargill closing meat packing plants in the USA this month;
  • Hiccups in availability for food through the pandemic will drive long-term concerns about food security and result in both government and consumers seeking more local/domestically-produced meats;
  • Concerns in Asia about food safety will drive accelerated declines in traditional, wet markets as the principal source of supply for fresh foods to the advantage of modern retail. This is a plus for meat exporters to Asia;
  • In Western and higher income economies in general, concerns about the provenance of food products and their ingredients, how they are produced, by whom, and whether the values of the producing company are in tune with its customers will only grow as we come out of the coronavirus crisis and have more weight in the purchase decision;
  • This coronavirus period has accelerated the adoption of online grocery shopping because of positive experiences during lockdowns – this is a threat to traditional supermarket companies but a clear opportunity for those that are progressive;
  • Closing down of restaurants and the food service sector in general is encouraging home cooking and ingredient box companies (e.g. HelloFresh, Mindful Chef, Gousto). Post-pandemic, will we return to the cafés and restaurants? Big time! But, a proportion of consumers will feel more comfortable in the kitchen and their lower incomes will encourage them to eat more often at home;
  • If we have (God forbid) re-occurring coronavirus pandemics, intermittent periods of panic buying will reoccur and, sadly, food wastage will increase.

Keep up the hand-washing, social distancing and self-isolating and do keep well.

Our very best David and Miguel.

Posted in Fresh Products, Sustainability, Trends, Vegetarian

What Did You Do in the Coronavirus War, Daddy?

Well, what a to-do! Just as the nation achingly comes to terms with Brexit, we’re sand-bagged with COVID-19. Bugger! But, on the brighter side, our viral tribulations, apparently, are evoking the cooperative, all pulling together spirit of The War Years – apart from minor lapses such as hand-to-hand fighting in the supermarket aisles and stripping the shelves of staples such that Tesco Extra looks like some Eastern European bare-boned store when the Iron Curtain was still down. We’ve been spared formal food rationing which, incidentally was introduced 80 years ago this past January with bacon, butter and sugar first to be listed in 1940 and sweeties (1953) and cheese and meat last to come “off the ration” (1954). David has a clear early 1950s memory of playing “shop” with his sibling – she 6 he 3 – using the family’s coupons as currency, National dried milk powder tins and angular syrupy Welfare concentrated orange bottles on the pretend shop shelf, with his sister the authoritative shopkeeper and he the compliant customer. Incidentally, it was during these formative food rationing years that we Brits honed our internationally-acknowledged core competence in queueing. Lest you think that Boris’s “Let’s Get Brexit Done” was an unique clarion call, the Tories were trotting this out as an election pledge on food rationing in 1951, although it took a further 3 years to actually execute – mmmm, sounds a bit like what may happen to Brexit in a coronavirus-distracted world!

Of course, we’re doing supermarket-based rationing right now and  we’ve all chuckled at the spoof maximum purchase notices:

  • Tesco: 2 toilet rolls, 1kg. rice, 2 packets dry pasta;
  • Morrisons: 3 toilet rolls, 1 bottle hand sanitizer, 4 pints green top  milk;
  • Aldi: 2 trumpets, 1 arc welding set, 1 chimpanzee costume.
Typically English, we ask our customers to behave themselves…
… until we need to enforce more strongly!

But, we are not at WW2 food rationing levels of hardship when our issues of concern are securing Tesco delivery slots for our weekly groceries and, God forbid, being limited to a paltry maximum of 80 items, bitching because they’re out of plain flour (and when we secured this scarce resource would we know what to do with it?), and sighing with relief that gluten-free, agave-sweetened chocolate brioche are still available. All-in-all, and considering that one-third of our total food supply is imported, the resilience of our supply chains is exceedingly strong. Consumer expectations are so high but it’s no bad thing for shoppers to embrace the fact that it’s not the end of the world if we can’t secure everything we want whenever we want it. You’ll recall the primal screams when bad weather in Spain three years or so ago pushed iceberg lettuce prices from tuppence to some multiple of tuppence. Our wartime family understood the notion of seasonality for food and so should we now. Incidentally, the current run on staple foods may auger well for an uptick in home cooking. As an aside, in 1960, David used to nip down to Mr. Fink’s The Fruiterer near to his school in Keswick, Cumberland, and use his pocket money to buy 4 oz. of fresh lychees as a treat with no thought how this fragile tropical delicacy arrived from Malaya. International supply chains for perishables weren’t too shabby 60 years ago!

Fresh produce wholesalers that have lost the restaurant business are becoming now your friendly local greengrocer!

David’s late Mum and Dad lived and worked in a South Wales steel town in the late-1940s. They were then de-linked from their home village which was a challenging 45 miles away (no car, basic public transport). They had little or no social network  – so, for example, no “off ration” extras from a friendly local butcher (à la Lance-Corporal Jones of Dad’s Army fame). His Mum recalled 1947 as being the “hungriest” year of the period 1940 to 1950. David’s sister was 2 and came first in the family feeding line. Fresh fruit & vegetables were never rationed but, often, in short supply and, unexpectedly, Mum found a bunch of fresh grapes to buy in the local market. Home she went to feed these sugar-filled treats to Jennifer and she recalled peeling them and eating the skins herself to keep her grumbling tummy quiet! In 2020, 5,000 food parcels are handed out each day in UK (one-third of them to children), so tummies continue to rumble in 2020 UK which is hardly a matter of pride for us as a leading global developed country. And, then, there’s the 800 million people in our  world that wake up and go to bed hungry. But, that’s another hugely serious matter.

War time Churchillian language to calm the masses when searching frantically for a pack of spaghetti!

What’s for dinner tonight in the “self-isolating” Hughes household? The exigencies of the time encourage serving nursery food – and it’s corned beef hash. Of course, Fray Bentos comes to mind. The  father of organic chemistry, German scientist von Liebig (yes, of condenser fame) beavered away at extracting the essence of meat as a means of taking the beef cattle bounty of the South American Pampas to the booming industrialising cities of Europe (in pre-freezer transportation days). Compagnie Liebig, with a business based in Fray Bentos, Uruguay, established the Fray Bentos corned beef and the Oxo brands. Dumb David remembers driving past the City of Fray Bentos en route to Punta del Este (Uruguay’s West Palm Beach) where he was speaking and  wondering why you’d name a city after a corned beef brand. Corned beef (or Bully Beef as it was known to the British Forces in WW2) is still sold in excruciatingly difficult-to-open cans with those peculiar easy-to-lose keys. Generations of home cooks have risked tetanus and lockjaw so that their families can enjoy their favourite comfort food!

We are slap bang in the middle of scary times. From  an agriculture and food industry perspective, let’s hope that our tribulations will spawn a more positive era and a better understanding of food issues such as those relating to food security, food equity, food safety, even food cooking at home and our children’s understanding of where food comes from, how it is produced and by whom and its impact on our planet. Whether it be a nasty human or animal virus (coronavirus is both i.e. it’s zoonotic), climate change-induced calamity (floods, droughts, fires, etc.), and vituperative trade policy spats, directions in our world  seem to be increasingly uncertain. Super-efficient JIT supply chains have their moment but, maybe, we should focus on those with more robustness. This will bring additional costs and the need for creative products and routes to market for “waste”.

How we shop for groceries is in flux – the return of “The Big Shop” but purchased online and delivered to our door; increasingly more frugal shopping (UK household incomes are forecasted to decline by at least 5% this year); less focus on quality and more on availability; more careful selection of items that are perceived to contribute to the health and well-being of the family; redefining convenience to include ease of securing grocery needs for the family for the week and less on the immediate Food-2-Go requirements of the individual; and declining consumer confidence in the future manifested as squirreling behaviour for “essentials”. But, when the air raid sirens sound the all clear, will we revert to avaricious consumer type and forget the lessons learnt during the coronavirus war of 2020?

Both of us hope that you and your families will prevail and prosper and we look forward  to interacting with you when the evil mist dissipates.

Posted in Consumer, General, Supply Chain, Trends

Accelerated Change in the Food Industry: Remember The Boiled Frog!

Two years ago Amazon, one of the online shopping world behemoths, confounded analysts by announcing that it was about to buy Whole Foods – an up-market bricks and mortar grocery shopping chain (June 16th, 2017). Share prices of major grocery stores plummeted, particularly in the USA (and they were rocky in the UK, too):

Grocery pundits opined that the Amazon-Whole Foods deal would change the face of grocery to the detriment of traditional supermarket players. We put in our two cents with our blog “What if …. Amazon bought Sainsbury’s?!” (July 2017). What’s more, in the aftermath of the UK regulator thwarting Sainsbury’s merger with Asda, we are minded to repeat this question!

So, has grocery retailing been turned on its head since then? No, but there’s been lots of changes. In the USA, the grocery retail giants didn’t show the white flag! Most piled into upping their online presence, not least Walmart who are bound and determined to “Out-Amazon Amazon” with initiatives such as:

  • Expanding its investment in Chinese electronic marketplace company JD.Com and bringing it to the USA, alongside its own Jet.com (an acquisition in 2016 to compete with Amazon);
  • Testing a grocery delivery plan – households can pay $99/year for unlimited delivery of groceries of $30+ basket size – hmm, sounds rather like Amazon Prime to us! – albeit without the music, reading material and TV freebies that’s included in Amazon prime. In the UK,  Amazon hired the Top Gear guys to produce a new programme to accelerate the uptake of subscriptions.
  • Substantially expanding investment in automation/AI – trialling autonomous grocery delivery, expanded robotic use in DCs.
  • Selling under-performing assets (like Asda?) to generate additional funds to invest in activities that improve its competitive position against Amazon.
Even Batman finds more convenient to get his BatBurgers without getting out of his BatMobile.

The USA has been a slow poke for online grocery shopping (3% of total grocery spend – it’s 8% in the UK) but from a low base it is growing rapidly and may reach 10% (combining delivered and click & collect) by 2024 giving the online route to the consumer a handsome value of $100 billion. Walmart’s growth in online grocery sales is much stronger than Amazon’s and for that omni-channel offer (“You can shop with us anywhere, any time, in any format”), Walmart has 10 times more stores across America than Amazon. But, they don’t have an Amazon Go offer and, mark our words, these quintessential convenience stores will be become pervasive in higher income urban markets. The real action for online grocery purchases increasingly will be in Asia. South Korea leads the global pack now, but China will dominate the online scene: Asian Millennial and Generation Z fresh food shoppers are caustic about their parents’ affection with traditional wet markets (which they see as being downright dangerous from a food safety perspective) and who would want to visit a physical store for routine food purchases in congested conurbations with scary air pollution problems?

Adapted from Kantar June 2019. ” Global online FMCG sales grew by 20% in 2018 “

By 2025, then, will our food shopping behaviour be radically different than it was in 2015? Yes and No! Buying food is different than, say, purchasing a branded electrical appliance, or topping up our on-hand cash, or the services of a taxi. We’d wager: you don’t have wistful moments recalling halcyon times queueing up at the bank for YOUR cash; notwithstanding your admiration for black cabs and the “The Knowledge” of their drivers, dialling up an Uber hasn’t left you in inner turmoil; and doing your research online and, then, purchasing the fridge brand of choice isn’t too difficult either. But, buying fresh foods is a different kettle of fish! Then, we’re much more contemplative.

For starters, we are conservative  in what we eat – of course, there are changes but, generally, they aren’t dramatic. In history, affordability and availability were paramount and, over time, the form of the food purchased became influenced by its convenience – in contrast to now where all foods are available all of the time. Food traditions were and are important, for example, the centrality of the Sunday roast which, then, led to a cold meat meal on the Monday and a minced one of whatever remained on the Tuesday. Religion played its part – fish on a Friday to cater for Catholics and, God love The JL Partners, Waitrose continues with its “20% Off Counter Fish on a Friday”! But, keep a keen consumer eye, roast dinners, casseroles, soups and sausage-based dishes are down across the UK, and Italian, Oriental, salad and vegetarian meals are up. Potatoes are featuring in 25% less roast dinners than they were 4 years ago.

Where we purchase food changes slowly, too, reflecting not least who we trust to provide the food we feed to our families. Remind us, what experience and expertise does Amazon have in retailing fresh meat, fruit and vegetables and aren’t they a tad more complex to source than masonry drill bits? A major constraint to expanding online retail sales of fresh food in the UK and many other countries is that shoppers mistrust the retailer to select produce on the customer’s behalf – even although the likes of Sainsbury’s, hardly a Johnny-come-Lately, have been doing exactly this for 150 years!

However, the rate of change of what we eat, where we purchase and consume it is accelerating driven by, inter alia:

  • Demographic change particularly in burgeoning cities – e.g. the growth of one person households (close to 50% of households in major international cities);
  • Time compression for families where 2 parents are working outside the home or, even more frantic, single parent families;
  • Fragmentation of the “family” meal occasioned by different working hours, proliferation of extra-curricular activities (sports, music, Ipad time, etc.);
  • Increasing incidence of food allergies and dietary preferences – e.g. the 20% of families with youngsters in the 10-20 year old range who are  – vegetarian or gluten-/lactose-intolerant (we refer to this as the tricky “What have you bought/cooked that Brenda can eat?” question);
  • And the global impact of food trends emerging, converging and being embraced brought about by social media consumption – e.g. pervasive Instagram food pictures (David’s 9 year old granddaughter woofs down smashed avocado on sour dough toast having no truck with Fanny Craddock-esque avocado prawn cocktail with scarily pink Marie Rose sauce!);

The food service industry responding adroitly to accelerating food-to-go demand – for example:

  • the likes of Pret out-performing traditional supermarkets in F2G (and buying F2G chain EAT to expand its vegetarian offer presence);
  • gas/petrol stations becoming respectable places to stop by for a chocolate croissant and decent coffee (explaining why Coca-Cola swept up Costa Coffee early this year) and a nutritious, ready-to-eat salad curated by Jamie Oliver himself;
Jamie Oliver branded products at Shell Petrol Stations. Can you spot the difference with your convenience supermarket?
  • restaurant meal delivery options arriving en masse (note that Amazon has just increased its investment in Deliveroo having failed twice to buy the company, and McDonald’s with its global link with Uber Eats is expecting a $3 bn. meal delivery business by the end of 2019);
  • meal kits whisked to one’s door with the week’s meals ingredients (in the USA, Unilever increasing its investment in Sun Basket and the largest Japanese organic food investor purchasing Purple Carrot both to hold positions in vegetarian and paleo diet meal offerings).

There’s so much going on in global F2G that it makes you dizzy and the pace of change and entrepreneurial energy in the UK is frenetic!

Having taken a battering over the past few years, Big Food as we expect has come back fighting and recognised that cutting costs is not the only solution to  its woes. Global brands are on the decline and regional/local ones on the up:

  • Danone is focusing on growth of the local brands in its brand stable, and on high growth areas such as plant-based foods, dairy protein, rehydration (water!), and gut health (pre- and probiotics);
  • Gut health has also appealed to Kellogg’s (launch of “Happy Inside” cereals) and to Unilever (investment in Culture Republick probiotic ice cream) as well as riding the healthy snacking trend by buying the UK’s Graze;
  • Shifting business emphasis from slow or no growth developed markets to speedy emerging markets is the order of the day, too – Unilever’s sales increased 5% in the latter and 0.3% in the former last year;
  • Even Big Meat, never first to the innovation parties, have lumbered forward with Tyson, JBS, Cargill and Purdue all launching flexitarian and plant-based “meat” products within the past few months. This is a segment that Nestlé seems stubbornly trying to embrace. Initially, the company failed with the launch of plant-based meals Garden Gourmet but, stoically Swiss as ever, Nestlé is re-launching it and has the impetus of providing its product as McDonald’s Big Vegan Burger, and has revealed to the world the Awesome Burger under the Sweet Earth label. Slow but generally sure, Nestlé aim to reach $1bn in sales within a decade from plant based products.
It is refreshing, and helps your Gut on the Go!

What’s all this mean to the rest of us – from broad acre arable farmers through SMEs in food manufacturing and meal & snack solution delivery? Change in the food and beverage industry is constant, inexorable and is clearly accelerating. Businesses of all shapes and sizes should reacquaint themselves with The Boiled Frog fable. Irrespective of the relevance to you of the second anniversary of Amazon’s Whole Foods purchase, ask yourself “In the last 24 months, what have we done in our business both to improve our position vis-á-vis our competitors and our customers?”. Go on, make a list! And for your products and services, what’s the fastest growing routes to the consumer and are you in them?

So far, the most visible effect of Amazon buying Whole Foods: New lower prices, Same high standards.

We started the blog talking about Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods and the tremor that this caused through global retailing. Two years on, the Whole Foods Division is the slow poke of the Amazon Empire (+2% p.a. revenue growth) dragging down overall corporate growth to a miserly 18%!  Bricks & mortar grocery retailing is not in the stratospheric arena of cloud computing in which Amazon excels. Kroger – America’s Number 2 grocer – slipped backwards in sales last year. Since buying Whole Foods (and not because of), Amazon’s stock price has close to double, whilst Kroger has lurched to and fro and, currently, has scraped a 6% gain over its June 2017 price. It’s tough trucking in grocery retailing and that’s one of the reasons, dear readers, to put it delicately that big supermarket chains are such difficult entities to deal with!   

Amazon delivering chilled beer for Prime customers! The secret weapon to impulse sales?
Posted in Convenience, Foodservice, Hypermarkets, Online, Trends

Who’ll Be in the Mind’s Eye of the Global Consumer for Providing Meal Solutions in the 2020’s?: Likely NOT Big Food and Traditional Supermarkets!

Don’t you just love those old fashioned advertisements that pluck at our heart strings regaling us about how we used to shop and put meals on the table for the family. The classic 1970s Hovis advertisement turned out to be prescient – the boy on the bike morphing into the Tesco deliveryman and the deliveroo guy!

Within 5 years, ageing Millennials and Generation Zers will be shaking their heads and chuckling at YouTube clips of “Supermarket Shoppers as Mules” queueing endlessly to purchase groceries and, then, ferrying them across carparks fraught with danger.

Around the world, traditional supermarkets are under siege and leaking grocery market share. The antagonists are a motley crew, including:

  • on-line specialists like Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com who are also taking aim at the offline side with shops that appeal to urban consumers because of their speed (Amazon Go) or the theatre and experience (Alibaba’s Freshippo);
  • basic but effective hard discounters like Aldi and Lidl, and “dollar stores” (e.g. Dollar General) in the USA expanding their food offer and adding in fresh produce;
  • small format convenience stores personified by the impressive 7-Eleven chain;
  • “food-to-go” specialists such as Pret, itsu and EAT. in the UK (and USA) ;
  • restaurants teaming up with on-line food ordering and delivery services such as Just Eat and Uber Eats, and for those appalled at food waste, the app Too Good To Go as a means of buying food that would otherwise be thrown out and is good for the pocket and for the environment;
  • meal kit providers à la mass market Hello Fresh and niche Mindful Chef;
  • specialty vendors of all kinds of foods linking primary producers directly to consumers (e.g. Crowd Cow in the USA with its “craft meat” offer, Abel and Cole in the UK selling premium organic ingredients, or the likes of Odd Box, another UK initiative that delivers “ugly” fruits and vegetables direct to consumers’ homes.);
  • non-food retailers adding a food section – e.g. the Walgreens Boots Alliance in the USA and, of course, Boots UK has long been a significant player in food-to-go (as has news agent & book seller WHSmith), and the increasingly sophisticated convenience food and drink product ranges in petrol/gas stations (who’d of thought of buying a chocolate croissant and fancy coffee from the greasy-handed pump attendant of the 1970s?!);
  • more modest local initiatives allowing us to use apps to connect with each other and swop (or unload) food that’s surplus to family requirements;
  • and coming to a home near you shortly, cool 3D printers that will produce intricate fancy cakes and cookies and magic up custom-designed, multi-coloured spaghetti and pizzas.

Globally, consumers are cooking less and buying more prepared meals and snacks, and eating out more. Euromonitor International note that “the bond between consumers and meal facilitators is becoming stronger”. This is particularly the case among younger consumers who report far less time and inclination to cook than previous generations. They use their mobile phones as extensions of their bodies and as the first port-of-call for help/assistance. What’s more, they are astonishingly impatient – whatever they want, they want it RIGHT NOW! This isn’t just a smart aleck London/NYC consumer trend, it’s a global pandemic! Indeed, with regard to frequency of eating out, the “Western” world is following emerging Asia rather than leading: 60% of Thais eat out 3 or more times per week and are loathe to pop out of their home for snacks when  Line Man is on hand (established in 2016 as a WhatsApp look-alike, it exceeded 1 million Bangkok customers by mid-2018 as it expanded the range of services it was offering).

This preference for uber-convenience is particularly expressed by younger consumers who view meal preparation as a very low order priority (“who has the time when there is so much to keep up with on social media?”). Of course, the dark irony is that “food and dining is becoming even more of a lifestyle, to be discussed, explored and used to define ourselves”. The preface to a meal is not a prayer of thanksgiving, it’s taking a photo of the plate to share with friends on Instagram! So, consumer interest in food, its story, food trends, and the willingness to pay a premium for food with status is growing even as the time to shop for and prepare food is being compressed. This has enormous implications for the global food and drink industry.

Demand for convenience in meal preparation isn’t a 21st century phenomenon. In the 1950s, David’s Mum would magic up Instant Whip dessert for a mid-week treat (Angel Delight in the USA). But, then, making instant pudding became too time-consuming! The last 70 years of the history of “Big Food” has been a journey of adding convenience (including extension of shelf life). In fact, this unrelenting journey has been part responsible for bringing “Big Food” to its current uncomfortable place – one characterised by slow sales growth, dwindling margins and the perception by many Millennial mummies that Big Food makes yesterday’s food.

Big Food’s megabrands have been assaulted by upstart new age food producers who cosy up to their customers with convenient, tasty products and heart-winning stories about their values and how these are commensurate with those of 21st century consumers. And of course, how “natural” and “clean” they are in many cases, and that they leave the planet much better than they found it! Just as traditional supermarket retailers are under siege, so are traditional fmcg food companies and BOTH are being attacked from all sides. An “on demand” freshly prepared food economy is emerging at the double turning fresh ingredients into meals and snacks whenever and wherever consumers require them. For Big Food’s billion dollar mega-brands, “one size fitted all” – now, the challenge is to be faster, fresher, more personalised, artisan-like but using AI and automation, and emulating fast fashion wizard Zara in shortening supply chains, and working much closer with producers.

When the focus is on providing consumers with meal and snack solutions rather than ingredients for them to prepare, power in the food industry shifts “to a new generation of companies and brands, from delivery aggregators and meal kit providers to next generation retailers, restaurant operators, and cooking equipment manufacturers, all striving to offer a wider range of prepared meal (and snack) solutions, across a wider range of occasions than ever.” (Euromonitor International). Led by Marks & Spencer (with a 50 year history of producing high quality chilled prepared meals, meal components and snacks), UK traditional supermarket companies are significantly further ahead than, for example, US supermarket retailers in responding to this challenge. For them, it’s making sure that their meal and snack products are immediately available when and where the customer wants to purchase and consume them. Proximity of store to the customer is helpful but not the end game. McDonald’s were comforted by the fact that 1 billion consumers were within 10 minutes of a Golden Arches outlet. The view was “that’s handy, it’s not far for them to drop by our restaurant”. Current senior management interpreted the proximity more perceptively as being “very handy, it’s not far for us to deliver whatever they want, whenever they want”!

Increasingly, we want more “experiences” when we buy products and services, particularly when we are in leisure mode. But, to reiterate, whatever we want, we want it NOW! Our demand for food is more complex: when we are in a food-as-fuel frame of mind, convenience is paramount (convenient to buy/prepare/consume/dispose). Our requirements are modified when food is the centre piece of a memorable gathering with friends or family. For a very few meal occasions in our week, we may well be willing, God forbid, to try out newly honed cooking skills garnered from watching cooking programmes. Then, food preparation and consumption is about celebrating the stories associated with the meal.

The decline of home cooking is not indicative of moral decay. It does reflect the reality of, in particular, urban life across the globe. Smaller households are burgeoning – single person households will increase by 30% between now and  2030, whereas those with 2 parents and children will expand by half that rate. In high income urban markets, the single person household is  the dominant unit. The 1 person family isn’t going to pop home after a long working day and prepare and cook a satisfying slow-cooked shoulder of lamb! They’re more likely to eat out, buy something prepared on the way home, drop into the Amazon Go which will be at the foot of every apartment building, order something in and have it delivered, or maybe heat up some leftovers in the microwave. Then, it’s either slump in front of the screen to surf the internet, watch a lifestyle cooking programme/dream of your “Escape to the Country” (i.e. rural idyll) or some intense moments perusing a dating app – hope triumphing over experience –  with the prospect that you might find a compatible mate!

Happy Easter holidays from the two of us. Miguel’s off to South Korea (he’s a kimchi aficionado and has to feed back his clients with the latest Asian trends). David is hot foot for a 6 week talking tour in SE Asia and Australia/NZ.

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in Convenience, Foodservice

What’s All The Fuss About Flexitarians and Faux Meat?

Well, we’ve got through Veganuary and, if you’re to believe all the media hype, the comfortably-off Western world is eschewing meat. January saw a torrent of plant-based meat lookalike products and vegetarian fare flood onto markets in Europe and North America and, what’s more, they were courtesy of “Big Food” not quirky millennial start-up companies, inter alia:

  • McDonald’s launched its first vegetarian Happy Meal for kids;
  • Pizza Hut playfully launched a cheeky, cheesy jackfruit pizza;
  • Vegan Beyond Burgers arrived in Carl’s Jnr. and A&W outlets in USA and Canada and, now, the Beyond Burger is in Tesco;
  • M&S introduced its Plant Kitchen range and had a special offer Vegan Valentine’s Dinner for February 14th featuring a heart-shaped beetroot burger;
  • Discounter Aldi pre-empted M&S with its own tiny-priced beetroot burger, and Iceland had launched with “surprising success” its “No Bull” burger back in April, 2018 and a jalapeño variant is now available;
  • Tesco doubled its vegetarian Wicked Kitchen offer;
  • fmcg heavyweight Unilever popped out to buy The Vegetarian Butcher in Holland and Nestlé will launch its plant-based Incredible Burger this Spring under the Garden Gourmet brand;
  • and, just to make dairy farmers nervous, Danone USA doubled its plant-based milk processing product capacity (e.g. So Delicious yogurts and cheese, Vega Clean Protein (i.e. without “naughty” No’s such as GMO, gluten and, of course, without dairy!), Silk soy, nut, grain-based milks).

What’s the  story and is meat consumption plummeting? Certainly not in the USA where “Meat is Making America Great Again” and per capita meat consumption is at a record high (+100 kg. per capita). In many other Western markets, however, per capita meat consumption is flat at best and any market growth reflects an increase in overall population and, within the overall meat category, beef and lamb are struggling for momentum while chicken still has inexorable growth. In fluid milk markets there are clouds, with liquid consumption falling (“full milk” in free fall and growth in semi-skimmed failing to compensate fully), whereas plant-based milks (isn’t cows’ milk plant-based?!) are experiencing huge growth albeit from a very modest base. Butter’s doing well – God Bless The Great British Bake Off!

What’s good for foods with a bona fide protein claim is that consumers are seriously interested in upping  their protein intake as part and parcel of  the Health & Well-Being super-trend. But, in the consumer’s mind’s eye, the “protein canopy” (to coin a phrase) has been expanding:

  • in history, red meat and particularly beef were synonymous with prime protein, then, chicken (and, to a lesser extent, turkey) muscled in!;
  •  eggs have always been an acknowledged protein source but lower order than “proper” meat, occasionally bedevilled with food safety scares and, still, some consumers are uncertain about the impact of eggs on cholesterol levels (although, currently, eggs are motoring well) ;
  • whey protein was for body-builders and the infirm but, now, it has broad market appeal still used for sculpting the body beautiful but, also, for adding muscle to dwindling, wizened baby boomer frames;
  • a decade ago, yoghurts weren’t perceived as being proteinaceous, then, Chobani launched in the USA and the “Greek-Style” yoghurt race was on with high protein claims. Arla wasn’t slow to the party and quark-based yoghurts and cottage cheese came to market as “Arla Protein” with advertisements claiming “same amount of protein as 2 egg whites”;
  • soy, long a protein mainstay of vegetarians, is a principal ingredient in protein “shakes”, protein bars (e.g. Mars Protein and Snickers Protein), protein breakfast cereals (e.g. Kellogg’s Special K Protein), etc.;
  • and, remember, the protein backbone for the Indian sub-continent and the Middle East for millennia has been pulses – peas, beans, lentils, etc. – which are having a surge in growth on Western menus. Then, there’s nuts, of course, which in Western markets are moving on from being Christmas items and salty pub snacks to having a moment in “high protein” snacks, salads and meat-free meals which are scooped up by omnivores not just  vegetarians;
  • creeping into view, pardon the pun, come insect protein products – the Insekten Burger is our favourite, but cricket flour snacks abound (e.g. Jimini’s and you can have your insect of choice – grasshopper, mealworm, and buffaloworm) and algae protein, not least with Spirulina, is becoming very fashionable;
  • and, lest we forget, what about Faux meats? These are the plant-based burger lookalike products and mycoproteins (e.g. Quorn) that incense the traditional meat industry. Love them or hate them, they are under the protein canopy and will be joined in years to come by much closer representations of “the real thing”, i.e. meat grown from animal cells. Faux meats are, increasingly, in the product stables of international meat companies (e.g. Cargill, Tyson and Maple Leaf Foods)

Marks & Spencer famous promotion “Valentines Day Dine in for Two for £20” had this year vegetarian options, plus an array of new products for the day like the Heart-Beet Burger suitable for vegans.

We note the outright antagonism between meat and dairy farmers and the more extreme end of plant-based imitations (aka fake meat/milk in Trumpian parlance). Can meat only be the flesh of an animal? In history, the term meat meant food of any kind. Venerable David has long referred to coconut meat and milk and the more hide-bound in the red meat industry don’t count fish as real meat! Some of the plant guys, mind you, can be self-righteous and zealotic to the extreme excoriating omnivores for destroying the planet, ruining their health and encouraging animal welfare abuse. The use of “clean” protein/milk/meat fans the flames with the intimation that animal meat and milk is “dirty”.

On nomenclature, it’s still early days and going forward expect to see regulation and the application of common sense. The over-riding requirement is not to confuse the consumer – s/he’s confused enough as it is! If it’s a burger, then, usefully precede with an adjective such as beef/pork/vegetable. In the past, Quorn has been cheeky in its labelling – e.g. meatless & soy-free (in small type)  Chik’n Tenders – clearly, beyond the pale. But, Quorn meat-free mince seems to us perfectly acceptable. Does milk only come from female mammals? We reckon that soy/almond/oat/hemp … milk labels will be permissible long-term on the basis that 99.9% of consumers won’t be confused at the supermarket shelf.

As mentioned, the market for protein foods is expanding and farmers through to retailers should be happy about this. Let’s look at meat (including faux meat!) in the marketplace. We see a continuum of products in the Meat or should it be the Protein or Centre of the Plate Department of the near future:

  • at one end, “real” meat with a compelling story – festooned with adjectives identifying provenance, breed, feeding regime, etc., and retailing at a substantial premium;
  • more basic meat fare, value-priced for weekday meals (more fuel than fancy!);
  • flexitarian products combining meat and pulses – they’re gaining market traction right now – e.g. Lidl’s Keen & Bean chilli con carne meat balls, Greggs sausage and bean melt (so, what’s new about flexitarian products – Michelangelo invariably had chilli con carne in his lunch box as it was well-suited for those doing ceiling work), Waitrose’s Spanish pork, chickpea, red pepper & spinach sausages;
  • cultured, cell-grown meat initially will be accessible only to those with high incomes and, of course, it will be grown to meet customer specifications on shape and size;
  •  a range of faux meat products, like the Impossible Food and Beyond Meat burgers with no animal products in their ingredient lists;
  • a small and discrete entomophage section for insect food lovers.

Will each of the above categories have distinct, unique customers? Yes and No! Vegetarians and vegans will stick to their own. But, increasingly, the majority will have a meat repertoire and shop across all categories depending on the occasion – e.g. it has to be the real McCoy meat with a story for the big celebration. This is why anyone in the meat processing business should consider having representative products in all categories.

Traditional retail meat departments, as we know them, may be increasingly a feature of the past – it’s happening in front of our eyes right now. Consumers are stressed and short of time and they demand a meal or snack solution, not a problem. Clearly, the meat purchase, per se, has become less central as the importance of the meal purchase increases. The challenge for meat of any description is to ensure that it gets into the breakfast/lunch/dinner/snack sections of the supermarket or the high-flying food-to-go outlets.

Premium meats with stories, and convenient to eat and purchase will still have their market.

“Real” meat has never been under so much pressure on three fronts: its impact on the environment, human health, and animal welfare. Within the past couple of months, 2 high profile reports (EAT-Lancet Commission and World Resources Institute [WRI] Sustainable Diet Report) concluded that meat consumption, particularly in high income countries, should be slashed. WRI gives advice to those marketing plant-based foods and recommends “appealing language to boost mainstream diners’ appetites for plant-rich foods”:

  • don’t use meat-free, vegan, vegetarian, “healthy restrictive” labels;
  • but do use provenance, flavour, look and feel as hooks. Sainsbury’s Cumberland-spiced veggie sausages and  mash sales jumped 76% when the “meat-free” label was downplayed and the traditional recipe was highlighted.

The traditional meat industry should dwell on its unique attributes from a consumer perspective. We say, don’t get angry with the plant-based guys, get smart! They’ve joined meat under the protein canopy and they’re here to stay. Don’t fixate about “your protein” versus “their protein”, or even risk chronic constipation bickering over product nomenclature! Consumers want food that is tasty, healthy and affordable and they’re most interested in convenient meal/snack solutions NOT problems! Remember, this means convenient to buy, to prepare, to consume and to dispose of what’s left and its packaging. The threat to the meat industry of plant-based protein foods is not so much an emerging era of vegetarianism, it’s more of the arrival in the market of delicious, convenient, affordable food that happen to have fruit and vegetable ingredients!

Posted in Consumer, Health, Trends, Vegetarian

Enter your email address to follow this blog and authorise us to send you notifications of new posts by email.

Join 3,428 other followers

About the authors
Prof David Hughes: Around the world, David speaks to senior agribusiness and food industry managers about global food industry developments that are and will affect their businesses and industry. Energetic, engaging, humorous and insightful, David gains the very highest evaluations at seminars, conferences and Board level discussions in every continent he visits. Miguel Flavián: works for several Spanish organisations and companies to help them to learn from the developments of the British grocery market and improve their business back home.