Some Winners and Losers in Food & Drink Purchases During the Covid Crisis

Often, we’re wary of consumer surveys relating to food and health – we want to eat healthier, but it’s so tempting to indulge in a naughty snack! Mid-Covid, USA consumers claim to be eating healthier/making healthier choices and, although taste is Number 1, healthiness is second on their list. They’re confident in the safety of the overall food system although, during the pandemic, they’re more likely to wash fresh produce. Optimistic bias is alive and well: 75% of consumers think their diet is healthier than average and 60% believe that they are Very Healthy, notwithstanding that 69% of US adults are overweight/obese!

Source Food Dive (Nielsen)

For fresh fruit and vegetables, the USA consumer did “put their money where their mouth is” – fresh produce retail sales zoomed up $4.5bn January-August 2020 versus 2019. Mind you, this captured substantial trade from food service which was virtually closed down. Fresh food in general made LockedDown consumers feel happier!  

Food - Britons are defrosting decades-old diets | Britain | The Economist

Americans like dieting – 43% say they are on a specific diet, with intermittent fasting being the most popular (cutting out breakfast?!). In the search for healthier ingredients, high fibre, whole grains and plant protein are the top three. A significant percentage say that they are cutting down on red meat – hmmm this isn’t reflected in USDA’s national meat consumption trends!

Recent Nielsen data on USA FMCG grocery show the winners are:

  • Oat milk and plant protein meat alternatives – both perceived as being intrinsically healthy, yeast – because the nation decided to embrace home baking, not least sour dough bread, and crab & lobster – no surprise really, as an indulgent home seafood meal becomes an affordable treat whereas its restaurant equivalent pre-Covid would have been a stretch;
  • With the losers being – work snacks and comfort food, such as gum, mints and cupcakes, and premium nutrition bars that were “in the gym” fare when the gyms were open!

What about the UK? British consumers promised themselves that they would eat healthier under LockedDown, but then regressed. Supermarket multipacks of chocolate treats soared and retail sales jumped £260m in short order. This is what the trade refers to as the “lipstick effect”, i.e. when cheap treats sell well during tough times. Ice cream did well, too, and fresh and frozen vegetables spiked, reflecting the increase in home made lunches and dinners. But, the real star was “The Full English Breakfast” – eggs, bacon and sausage were a morning treat whilst time was on our hands! Butter did very well – driven by the Great British Bake Off effect pre-Covid and the desire to try out our own neophytic baking skills when we were locked in.

The locked in cooking craze is positive – pre-Covid, we’d return home and sink into a sofa to watch a cooking show.  In-Covid, we turned to the screen for practical help, but wanted to touch the ingredients. Then, proudly, we shared our meal result with friends on Instagram!

Let’s Bake at Home! Nevermind we use some shortcuts, and pass by Baker Street to find out some clues!

Accelerating a pre-Covid trend, perhaps surprisingly, was a sharp increase in the “nolo” drinks category, i.e. low or no alcohol beverages driven by millennial and younger consumers. Guinness launched a no alcohol version of its iconic stout. Adnam’s, a regional English brewery, claims low alcohol beer with flagship brand Ghost Ship, is 11% of its turnover. 

Ghost Ship 0.5% Chilli Con Carne | Adnams
Diageo launches non-alcoholic Guinness

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Posted in Consumer, Fresh Products, Trends
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About the authors
Prof David Hughes: Around the world, David speaks to senior agribusiness and food industry managers about global food industry developments that are and will affect their businesses and industry. Energetic, engaging, humorous and insightful, David gains the very highest evaluations at seminars, conferences and Board level discussions in every continent he visits. Miguel Flavián: works for several Spanish organisations and companies to help them to learn from the developments of the British grocery market and improve their business back home.
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