Reports of the Death of Meat have been Greatly Exaggerated

There’s 8+ billion people in our world and most eat meat – across the globe, average meat consumption is about 45 kg. per capita. By, 2050, we’ll have added another 1.5 billion food consumers, most living in Asia and Africa, and a good proportion of these will be carnivores of some description. Flick through the media and it’s easy to take the view that we’re at “Peak Meat” but that’s far from the case. Global meat consumption has ticked up by about 5 million tonnes per year over the past decade – that’s 0.5kg extra per year on every plate. Mind you, we’re eating more per person of everything (which is a worry for the burgeoning billions who are obese and sadly only aspirational for the close to 1 billion humans who are severely under-nourished) whether it be cereals/grains, fruit/vegetables/root crops or dairy. For meat, the average figure masks the fact that the level of meat consumption is linked closely to level of family income (and, for some countries, religious practices). Well-heeled USA consumers woof over 100 kg. of meat per capita, whereas in, say, economically struggling Burundi the figure is a mere fraction of this, and 30+% of the huge, expanding Indian population eat no meat at all.

In this short article, only meat from livestock grown on land is considered. Thus, there is a gaping hole because we’ve parked fish and seafood! Across Asia, fish are a huge proportion of total meat consumption (e.g. in Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong), as is the case in some European countries such as Norway, Iceland and Portugal) competing directly for the household purse with beef and pork, for instance. For land-based meats, the global story has been the disruptive impact of poultry on the meat industry, principally broilers, over the past 60 years: in the early-1960s, poultry meat consumption was around 3% of global meat total, with the principal spoils shared between pork and beef; ten years ago, the transformed picture showed pig and poultry meat sharing 74% of meat consumption; but, by 2024, poultry’s seemingly inexorable rise has given it a 40% global meat consumption share, with pork on 34% and beef slipping down to close to 20%. Sheep and goat meat, always minor on a global basis, have seen their share slip from around 10% in the early-1960s to 5% by 2024.

So, to paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of meat have been greatly exaggerated! Yet, the progression of meat consumption depends, inter alia, on country, demographic trends, livestock species, and time period being considered:

• take voracious USA, for example: in the mid-1970s, per capita beef consumption was 40 kg. (88 lbs.) but, now, it bobbles along around 25 kg. (with short-term trends depending on the state of the cattle cycle, spikes in beef retail prices,  etc); at 23 kg., pork per capita consumption has been relatively stable for some decades, again like beef, hiccoughs largely being related to hog cycle movements; the market for lamb shouldn’t be dismissed but, frankly, at 1 kg. per capita, cayotes are the biggest lamb consumers in the USA; and it’s poultry, principally broiler consumption that has driven overall American consumption to its present stratospheric levels – in the pre-1950s, at 5 kg. per capita chicken and turkey were for Christmas and, now, at 50 kg. “Chicken is for Tonight” (with apologies to brand owner Simplot)!;
• Australians are as carnivorous as Americans, with meat consumption per capita above 100 kg. and the overall picture isn’t too different – beef and lamb consumption is in slow decline and the total meat figure is maintained by modest growth in chicken consumption;
• relative to the above gargantuans, at around 60 kg. per capita, the British are more modest even wimpish in their meat consumption, albeit with a similar pattern to the above – i.e. beef, lamb and pork consumption drifting lower through time as poultry flaps up! During the current “cost-of-living crisis”, beef and lamb, as the premium-priced meats, have been under pressure. Yet, analysing UK “Family Food Survey” data (i.e. measures of food quantities eaten in the home) rather than more aggregated supply disappearance measures, to use a currently popular phrase, a more nuanced and concerning (from a meat industry perspective) picture emerges. In-home total weekly meat consumption per capita has decreased  from 1060 grms. in the early-2000s to 920 grms. in 2024 (a 10+% decline). Consumption of all meat and processed meat products declined most recently (price pressures) but, through the past 40 years or so, the strongest growth category by far was for pies and ready meals which doubled through this period. This isn’t surprising and we’ll address it briefly later;
• declining per capita consumption is not too worrisome if overall national population is growing, as it is in the 3 countries above but that isn’t always the case. The current population of Japan is 123 million with a median age of 49 years. By 2034, the population will likely have declined by 7 million and median age increased to 52 years – a reduced and older population who’ll likely eat less food overall, including less meat! In sharp demographic contrast, Nigeria may not be top of the target list for beef and lamb exporters, but its population will grow by 50+ million by 2034 (that’s twice the current population of Australia)) and median age will increase from 17 to 19 years (33 years younger than Japan). So, this is a market not to be dismissed if the Nigerian economy grows significantly and income distribution becomes more equalised/less polarised.

Indulge us and let’s return to how consumers in some “developed” markets purchase food items for their household. There was a day when, to use an old-fashioned term, we went to the supermarket to buy “ingredients” which we’d combine and cook at home to produce meals for our family. Increasingly, now, we buy meal components which we can bolt together at home for our “home cooked/from scratch” meal or, indeed, just buy the complete ready meal. Essentially, food service and food retail have converged and this trend is accelerating. Take a tour with us of the meat-related aisles of a very ordinary, close to being refurbished Tesco Extra supermarket in a small town in the South West of England – it’s very pleasant but a long way from a trendy, higher income suburb of capital city London!: traditional packaged cuts of meat are plainly presented on-shelf by species (beef, pork, lamb, etc.) with complete absence of any “retail theatre”; reflecting its share of total meat consumption, chicken rules the roost on shelf space, in addition to a chicken fixture, it has “Roast Chicken” and “Chicken Shop” ones, too; prepared meals have double even triple the space of bog standard beef, as do fixtures for “Easy Meals”, “That’s Dinner Sorted”, and “Snacking  & Sharing”; there’s an aisle of chilled (not frozen) fixtures for  “Pasta & Sauces, Soup & Quiches, Antipasti, and Pizza & Bread”.

Working from/marooned at home? Browse the Tesco web site and settle on Tesco finest Dine in for two with 1 main, 1 side, 1 dessert and your choice of a bottle of wine/4 beers or soft drinks: do you fancy chicken, chorizo & king prawn paella with green veg. medley in wild garlic butter, sticky toffee pudding for dessert and all washed down with a New Zealand sauvignon blanc? The price is an attractive £12 for a couple, £6/$7.60 per person. Let’s Eat Out In! Or pop to your local Marks & Spencer Simply Food to take home your choice of a Dine In Stir Fry/Indian/Summer Slow Cooked/Gastropub/Fresh Pasta/Pizza meal for 2 or 4 people. In UK, grocery stores, the “Eat Out In” offer presents serious competition for the restaurant/café trade and takes the meat supplier one step further away from the final consumer. However, food service is far from laying on its back and saying take my business. Note the breakfast offers of major players Gregg’s and McDonald’s – £2.80 ($3.50) for a Bacon Roll & coffee/Sausage & Egg McMuffin & coffee. The kitchen at home is getting increasingly sparse use!

No mention has been made of plant-based meats, so here’s some quick thoughts. Think back 5 years or so and recall the cacophonous media noise, particularly in the USA, surrounding plant-based meat-mimicking food products. Many a pundit mused that the animal meat industry was set to be disrupted big time! In the USA, the plant-based food market had a retail value of $8bn in 2023, down a tick from the previous year and unit sales were showing a negative 3-year CAGR of -6%. The plain fact is that the plant-based meat retail market in the USA is about 1% of the retail meat category and is struggling for growth. A plethora of products were launched by zealous start-ups, compounded by more mature companies, not least “Big Meat” (global meat companies), jumping on the bandwagon because of FOMO (“fear of missing out”). You could see it in the eyes of their senior managers that they didn’t believe in their plant-based offer, after all, they were “Meat Men”! Major reasons for failure included: poor taste/tasteless; complex ingredient lists which, more recently, are being associated with Ultra Processed Foods; high prices relative to real meat; and launched in a period when target consumers were strapped for cash. The craze/fad is done and dusted? Not at all. Just have a good look in your local supermarket at the shelf space given to plant-based. In the UK, the major grocers see a considerable opportunity here to leverage their own label offer. Also, look in sandwich shops (e.g. Pret, M&S Simply Food, Boots). Fodder for vegetarians? Yes but, also, for a much wider range of consumers who seek a variety of healthy foods for a tasty snack or meal.

Where are we now in the meat industry?   The pandemic is done and dusted but what about livestock pandemics? The cost-of-living crisis is easing. Plant-based threats are modest and manageable. Lab-grown meat is looking like something for the next generation to deal with. Global scene calming? Far from it with a tragic war in Europe, the Middle East near boiling point, and worrisome tussles in The China Seas. International freight rates are hitting the high points. Food security is rising further up national governments policy priority lists. There are periodic cataclysmic tariff penalties because of trade embargoes associated with international political tiffs (e.g. as EU relationships with China deteriorate, there’s increasing concerns about the security of European wine and meat exports – Australian wine exporters to China know the story and associated risks). Some big deal elections are coming up which could throw international trade relations into higher profile. Not for this article, but there are substantial issues which must be addressed about the environmental impact of the meat and dairy industries which will transform the way we produce meat in the future (go long on seaweed!). We’re still in the woods!

Most of the 8 billion people in our world love meat and many want to eat more of it! However, in high meat consuming countries expect to see consumers eat less meat per capita, although those that can afford it will be willing to pay more for better meat. The biggest change in our industry and an existential threat for the traditional meat supplier will be coming to terms with the fact that consumers increasingly want meal and snack solutions and not lumps of flesh! This will require substantially better cooperation and coordination than has been shown in the past in what is still a commodity-driven industry. On a nostalgic note, back in the 1950s, David’s Mum would be advised by her local butcher, “I’d recommend a leg of lamb for this Sunday’s roast, Mrs. Hughes” and Mum, with implicit trust, would respond “Thank you, John”! We’ve come a long way since then but we’re not sure if it’s backwards or forwards! But, if the global meat industry is to be well placed to flourish through this challenging but exciting century, it will be essential that it is well trusted by consumers all the way back through the supply chain to its livestock producers.

David Hughes and Miguel Flavian

August 20^th, 2024

There’s a 25-slide attachment to this note which gives info. on the stats/figs. given herein. You’re very welcome to download the attachment.

Thanks are due to Tim Morris, CEO of Coriolis Research, New Zealand’s leading agri-food strategy consulting company, who provided many of the global meat figures.